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Cement sector "not short in off-season" prices or will enter the upward channel

时间:2020-03-02 17:37:45 Author: Xiao Bian Click:

 In the first half of 2018, the growth rate of real estate investment increased significantly compared with the same period in 2017, with a nominal growth rate of 9.7%, but infrastructure investment closely related to cement demand fell sharply, with a year-on-year growth rate of only 7.3%, which was much lower than the same period in 2017 21.1% of the total, directly dragging down the demand for cement, and the demand for cement declined slightly.As of the first half of 2018, the country’s cumulative cement output was 9.97 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%, and the rate of decline narrowed from January to May. Among them, the demand for cement in the northern region fell sharply, and the growth rates of Northeast, Northwest, and North China were -1%, respectively. , -5% and -12.85%. Supported by the poverty alleviation policy, the Southwest region has the fastest growth rate of 11.81%. The region shows a steady trend in the south and a decline in the north.

On the whole, due to the impact of environmental protection and staggered production, clinker wholesale in most regions is in a tight balance, coupled with the early rise of clinker prices along the Yangtze River Delta, which helped stabilize cement prices. After entering August, with downstream cement As demand resumes, cement prices in many regions will enter an upward channel.Huarong Securities recommends to focus on the relevant regional bids where regional coordination is better and the government has greater environmental protection efforts.

Shen Wanhongyuan believes that the cement sector will not be weak in the off-season in the second half of the year. The continued improvement in the supply and demand pattern of clinker will support cement prices, and the high profitability and sustainability will likely exceed expectations; the cement sector’s stock selection logic in the post-supply-side period needs to focus on the region The three main lines of attributes, growth attributes, and resource attributes select companies that have short-term flexibility, medium-term growth, and long-term wins. In the second half of the year, we recommend focusing on regional attributes and growth attributes, and recommend Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement.In the glass sector, there are long-term advantages and short-term concerns. Demand release and cold repair and shutdown have phased signs of lag. The concentrated release of dividends will be late but will not be absent. In addition, the increasingly smooth cost curve in the context of stricter environmental protection has gradually enlarged the quality of leading players. Relative advantage is a deterministic opportunity.

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